Met Office Issues First Autumn Storms Forecast As London Plunges 2026

Key Points

• Autumn Storms Warning: The Met Office has issued its first autumn storms forecast, warning that unseasonably warm weather is coming to an end across the United Kingdom.
• Plunging Temperatures: London temperatures are set to drop significantly over the weekend, feeling no warmer than 12C or 11C despite weekend highs of 14C and 13C.
• Sharp Contrast: The sudden drop follows a brief period of unseasonably warm weather that saw Thursday temperatures peak at a high of 21C in London.
• Unsettled Atlantic Regimes: Long-range forecasts indicate that changeable and wet weather systems will arrive from the Atlantic through the remainder of October.
• El Nino Influence: Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk noted that historical El Nino influences in the Pacific are expected to drive wetter and warmer conditions this autumn.

London (West London Times) October 17, 2026 — The Met Office has warned of increasingly unsettled autumn weather across the United Kingdom, with Atlantic weather systems expected to bring spells of wet and windy conditions through the remainder of October. London temperatures are forecast to fall from a recent high of 21°C to weekend highs of 14°C on Saturday and 13°C on Sunday, while longer-range forecasts suggest temperatures will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages overall.

The outlook also highlights the potential influence of El Niño on autumn rainfall patterns, although the timing and severity of any stormy conditions remain uncertain.

What Does the Latest Met Office Forecast Predict for Autumn Weather Across the United Kingdom?

Autumn storms could sweep across parts of the United Kingdom over the next couple of weeks, according to the latest long-range predictions issued by the Met Office. Forecasters are anticipating increasingly unsettled weather conditions during the remainder of October.

As reported by Michael Howie, Senior News Editor of the Evening Standard, the national weather service stated in its updated outlook that unsettled weather is looking increasingly likely through the rest of the month,

“with spells of wet and windy weather arriving from the Atlantic”.

The Met Office added:

“While there is still a chance that high pressure will build near the UK again during late October, it is more likely that the changeable or unsettled regime will continue once established. It is possible that stormy weather may also develop at times. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal overall, with mild spells likely at times, especially towards the south.”

Furthermore, the forecasting agency highlighted that in between frontal systems, colder nights are possible, accompanied by a touch of frost in various regions.

How Will Plunging Temperatures Impact London Over the Weekend?

The incoming forecast arrives as temperatures in London are set to fall steeply over the weekend, bringing a sharp end to a brief spell of mild conditions. Highs are expected to reach only 14C on Saturday and 13C on Sunday.

However, as reported by Michael Howie of the Evening Standard, it will feel no warmer than 12C or 11C as a gentle breeze blows in from the north. This dramatic shift follows a high of 21C recorded on Thursday, which allowed residents across the capital to enjoy a few days of unseasonably warm weather.

How Are Global Weather Patterns and El Nino Contributing to the Season Shift?

The unfolding autumn weather pattern coincides with broader meteorological phenomena, specifically a major El Nino development in the Pacific Ocean, which forecasters predict will cause wetter and warmer weather across various regions this autumn.

Last month, Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk addressed the seasonal shift, stating, as reported by Michael Howie of the Evening Standard:

“The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events.”

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Background of the Particular Development

The transition from unseasonably warm spells to stormy, unsettled autumn conditions is a recurrent meteorological feature in the United Kingdom, heavily influenced by the positioning of the jet stream over the Atlantic Ocean. Jet stream fluctuations frequently direct low-pressure systems toward the British Isles during mid-to-late autumn.

In addition, periodic oceanic phenomena such as El Nino—characterized by sustained warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—have historically impacted global atmospheric circulation. These large-scale shifts alter standard weather regimes across the Northern Hemisphere, often increasing the frequency of heavy precipitation and heightened storm risks during European autumn and winter seasons.

Prediction on How This Development Can Affect Londoners

The combination of wet and windy Atlantic weather systems, dropping weekend thermal baselines, and potential night frosts will likely place immediate pressures on London’s transport networks, local infrastructure, and daily commuter routines. Pedestrians and public transport users across the capital will need to transition rapidly to heavy autumn attire as morning and evening chills become standard.

Furthermore, increased rainfall and potential stormy intervals could lead to localized travel disruptions, slippery road conditions, and heightened energy demands across residential sectors in Greater London as households begin adapting to colder seasonal norms.